Asymptotic Change: The Rate of Change is Increasing Asymptotically

History is advancing and therefore the rate of change is increasing asymptotically. Asymptotic change confuses people because for most people there is no example in their lives that is asymptotic. An asymptotic curve is one which the Y axis approaches infinity as the X axis approaches a particular point.

This leads some people to thinking the end of history will be something like tomorrow. The writer of blog.tribulationperiod.com seems to feel this way. According to my reading of his site, he seems to think that armaggedon will probably happen sometime around 2010-2015.

Other people think change rates will merely increase parabolically or geometrically. They say things like "change is accelerating" or "the rate of change is growing geometrically.

I believe that history is approaching an end point of infinite advancement in the year 2049 AD.

Here is a diagram to illustrate the difference:

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All of Human History on One Diagram

Here I have condensed all of human history into one diagram. Eden was probably in the valley westward between Cyprus and Turkey. It was a valley then because sea level was much lower. Some sort of volcanic cataclysm drove its inhabitants East to the area between Cyprus and the Levant. The mighty men came along in this area, and some sort of water cataclysm drove the few survivors even further east into present day Israel of Jordan. The people tried to stay together somewhere in this region by building a great tower but their language lost its cohesiveness and they began to separate.

They formed four groups, one, the group of Japheth headed north and founded Hatti. One headed east and Founded Sumer. One headed southwest and founded Egypt. One, the Amalekites stayed in Israel and Jordan and tried and failed to continue the centralized civilization their ancestors had tried. The first Europe was centered on this area. I call this the fertile crescent phase. The dominant regions in order during this phase were Jericho (Amalek) Hatti, Egypt, Babylon.

Then the world expanded. After the Explosion of Thera, the Exodus of the Israelites, the invasion of the Hyksos (who may have also been the Amalekites), the reign of Solomon and certain later destabilizing events, there was a land rush into the Mediterranean. The land rush brought about the second Europe, which I call the Mediterranean Phase. During this phase the dominant regions were in order: Persia, Aegea, Rome, and Germany. This was also the only phase to fail. It may have been the failure of the Israelites to build a great central civilization of priests. It may have been that Thera killed so many people that world civilization was seriously weakened. It may have been the cancer of the Persian system of pagan Imperialism. It may have been a weak set of transportation and communication technologies (no zero, no ocean going ships). Whatever the reason, classical civilization failed.

The third Europe is the one we all know. The civilized world expanded again and moved northwest. The Arabians mopped up the remainder of the dying classical civilization and history declined to its failure point, and then began advancing again, this time successfully. Europe seemed to start up in that area that had been part of Rome but had both fallen away from it and had not been conquered by the Arabs. This gave the third Europe a Rome to London axis upon which to expand from. And expand they did. Perhaps the communication, transportation, and distribution technologies had finally advanced enough to sustain a real enlightenment. The Europeans learned about balance of power, the zero (from the Arabs), printing, ocean going ships, science, and industry. The dominant regions during this Europe were Arabia, Spain, Britain, and America in that order.

Once America was in the game, the world has expanded once again. We are now into the 4th Europe, which will probably eventually include most or all of the world. The likely dominant regions of the 4th Europe are likely to be Japan, China, Europe, and Latin America. The world will probably coalesce around one organization structure, but I don't have a clue what it is yet.

The fifth Europe will likely be the tribulation. The people who build the one world organization will probably not want to give up their power even though the natural tendency at that period will be a dissolution of some sort. I can think of two possibilities at the moment. One is that we will have another failed series of advances just as had with classical civilization and Jesus will have to come and sort out the mess. The other is a need for the civilized world to expand once again like it has for each of the four Europe’s before it but since Europe #five will already take up the entire world there will be no place to expand to. Doves are peaceful birds but when you put them in a space too small to hold both of them, they will peck each other to death. Jesus will come to rescue us from this too.



Here is the link

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ASCII Art Artificial World Game Screen

Here is a possible layout for a game all done in ASCII.

+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+
|Name:              0|Name:              1|Name:              2|Name:              3|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|
|Side:good|~~~s \wwww|Side:evil|          |Side:none|          |Side:good|          |
|Size:88% |~~~~  B---|Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |
|A:Name   |~~~~_/ ooo|A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |
|B:Name   |~~ / C  oo|B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |
|C:Name   |~~A   ^ D%|C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |
|D:Name   |~/xx^^^%%%|D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |
+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+
|Name:              0|Name:              1|Name:              2|Name:              3|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|
|Side:good|          |Side:good|          |Side:good|          |Side:good|          |
|Size:88% |~~~~  B---|Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |
|A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |
|B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |
|C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |
|D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |
+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+
|Name:              0|Name:              1|Name:              2|Name:              3|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|
|Side:good|          |Side:good|          |Side:good|          |Side:good|          |
|Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |
|A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |
|B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |
|C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |
|D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |
+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+
|Name:              0|Name:              1|Name:              2|Name:              3|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|ABCDEFGHIJKLMNOPQRST|
|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|Pop: 1.2M+----------|
|Side:good|          |Side:good|          |Side:good|          |Side:good|          |
|Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |Size:88% |          |
|A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |A:Name   |   map    |
|B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |B:Name   |          |
|C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |C:Name   |          |
|D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |D:Name   |          |
+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+--------------------+
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 A B C D E F -- enter area       
points of interest: ABCD
roads: -\/_|><        rivers: ~,.`'{}       walls: [%][%][%]   towers: o (o)
terrain:  w~@^ON +#.%?X;$:*=!&        dialog: "
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
S. w  Sea            L. ~  Lake/River     C. @  City           M. ^  Mountain
F. o  Forest         Q. s  Swamp          O.    Open           P. +  Plain
K. #  Farms          D. .  Desert         J. %  Jungle         I. ?  Infertile
A. x  Arctic         T. ;  Tropical       G. $  Green          R. :  Rainy
B. *  Bedrock        E. =  Eolian         N. !  Nomads         H. &  Hunters

The first line is the name of the area. This is followed by four profiles. Next comes population and side. Then comes four points of interest ABCD. typing 0-9A-F lets you zoom on one of the 16 regions. The remainder of the legend has to do with symbols that will show up in the map areas.

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The Conservation of Creativity in the Real World

I have written before about the Conservation of Creativity as part of Artificial Creativity. I'm having trouble writing this article partly because I don't like criticizing people, and many of the examples I might provide look like failures. In a sense, they are not. In a sense, they are examples of a principle I am trying to point out.

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